[While some collectors may have misgivings about eBay, it is one
of the primary secondary markets for art toys. Sometimes the best
recourse for acquring a rare, hard-to-find figure, it is also an
indicator of current popularity and value. Clay C. will periodically cover eBay trends for Vinyl Pulse. Here’s his thorough piece about pricing cycles.]
of the primary secondary markets for art toys. Sometimes the best
recourse for acquring a rare, hard-to-find figure, it is also an
indicator of current popularity and value. Clay C. will periodically cover eBay trends for Vinyl Pulse. Here’s his thorough piece about pricing cycles.]
The secondary market in art toys presents some interesting economic
illustrations. Pricing in the primary market is determined by a
myriad of factors external to the immediate transaction – repute, retail profit
margins, long-term business relationships, etc. It is in the secondary
market that we can sometimes get a clearer view of supply and demand in
action.
One recent illustration of supply and demand in the secondary toy market is
the Tim Biskup Stack Pack. (This vinyl set was later released by Tim with
Munktiki in two different ceramic colorways, and he has said that he intends to
do more colors of the ceramic set in the future. Your author is of the
personal opinion that the ceramic versions of the Stack Pack are among the best
3D realizations of Biskup’s art yet released.) The vinyl Stack Pack
was the original Stack, and its recent sales in the secondary market are
illustrative. This pattern, this curve, recurs on eBay with all ‘commodity
collectibles’ – all items of which there is a finite supply and a large but
still finite pool of interested buyers. There are always other
factors that introduce pricing variations – a particular item’s
condition/completeness, shipping costs, seller’s eBay feedback rating, etc., and
no real-world dataset is perfect, but this item’s recent history does
illustrate a very commonly seen pattern. It may be useful for toy
collectors to be aware of this pattern, its implications for both buyers and
sellers, and its potential for abuse.
the Tim Biskup Stack Pack. (This vinyl set was later released by Tim with
Munktiki in two different ceramic colorways, and he has said that he intends to
do more colors of the ceramic set in the future. Your author is of the
personal opinion that the ceramic versions of the Stack Pack are among the best
3D realizations of Biskup’s art yet released.) The vinyl Stack Pack
was the original Stack, and its recent sales in the secondary market are
illustrative. This pattern, this curve, recurs on eBay with all ‘commodity
collectibles’ – all items of which there is a finite supply and a large but
still finite pool of interested buyers. There are always other
factors that introduce pricing variations – a particular item’s
condition/completeness, shipping costs, seller’s eBay feedback rating, etc., and
no real-world dataset is perfect, but this item’s recent history does
illustrate a very commonly seen pattern. It may be useful for toy
collectors to be aware of this pattern, its implications for both buyers and
sellers, and its potential for abuse.
Here are a series of all recent eBay sales of the Biskup Stack Pack – This
item was chosen more or less at random — It has been out for several years and
is now pretty much unavailable at retail, so the secondary market is its only
market. The set was released in 2003 as part of the Sony Time Capsule/Art
Capsule Project.
item was chosen more or less at random — It has been out for several years and
is now pretty much unavailable at retail, so the secondary market is its only
market. The set was released in 2003 as part of the Sony Time Capsule/Art
Capsule Project.
Item
# Closing
Date Closing Price
# Closing
Date Closing Price
190069605888
1/11/07
$161.38
1/11/07
$161.38
200068750275
1/21/07
$141.38
1/21/07
$141.38
200070530435
1/25/07
$103.50
1/25/07
$103.50
120081201393
2/05/05
$116.50
2/05/05
$116.50
150088658626
2/11/07
$105.00
2/11/07
$105.00
120083851538
2/12/07
$102.50
2/12/07
$102.50
200081479791
2/23/07
$64.00
2/23/07
$64.00
190085904958
3/01/07
$56.00
3/01/07
$56.00
This is almost a textbook illustration of the cyclical operation of
supply and demand in these finite-items / finite-buyer-pool situations.
Demand builds as collectors discover or remember the item and start to hunt for
it. They put it on their eBay ‘Watch’ lists, etc. The longer
this continues without any becoming available, the larger (and more eager)
this buyer pool becomes. When the first one is
listed for sale after a longish dry spell, there is significant pent-up
demand, and the item sells for a very high price. That high price
itself then draws the attention of potential sellers. Owners of the item
see the closing prices and decide "Wow, at that price, they can
have it!" More appear on the market. Each successive one listed has
a smaller group of buyers, as the early buyers are no longer in the market
(and some potential buyers may be scared off by the high prices
realized in the early sales). So, the supply goes up as the initially
high prices drive more Stack Packs to the market, and the demand
goes down as the buyer pool shrinks (by at least one) in each successive
sale. The result is predictable — the price drops. It will
usually continue to drop to the point where no more of them come to the
market, potential sellers having decided that at that low price, it is not
worth selling. A dry spell ensues, and the cycle begins again.
supply and demand in these finite-items / finite-buyer-pool situations.
Demand builds as collectors discover or remember the item and start to hunt for
it. They put it on their eBay ‘Watch’ lists, etc. The longer
this continues without any becoming available, the larger (and more eager)
this buyer pool becomes. When the first one is
listed for sale after a longish dry spell, there is significant pent-up
demand, and the item sells for a very high price. That high price
itself then draws the attention of potential sellers. Owners of the item
see the closing prices and decide "Wow, at that price, they can
have it!" More appear on the market. Each successive one listed has
a smaller group of buyers, as the early buyers are no longer in the market
(and some potential buyers may be scared off by the high prices
realized in the early sales). So, the supply goes up as the initially
high prices drive more Stack Packs to the market, and the demand
goes down as the buyer pool shrinks (by at least one) in each successive
sale. The result is predictable — the price drops. It will
usually continue to drop to the point where no more of them come to the
market, potential sellers having decided that at that low price, it is not
worth selling. A dry spell ensues, and the cycle begins again.
This cycle is predictable and occurs on eBay in many collectible
markets, more clearly in other categories with much larger pools
of items and buyers than art toys. The cycle is also becoming shorter and
shorter now as one result of eBay‘s policy changes. All eBay listings are
retained in their databases for 90 days, and in the early days of eBay the items
in the database were all searchable – you could search through all of
the last three months’ completed sales. That ‘searchable’ period has
shrunk and shrunk, until now a search of ‘completed’ items will only turn up
items that closed in the last fifteen days. The information available to
both buyers and sellers has thereby been severely reduced. And, because
both sellers and buyers use eBay‘s completed sales to estimate reasonable prices
and bids, this reduction in the available information means that now even a very
short spell of time without a particular item becoming available can leave both
buyers and sellers who are relying on completed item searches in the dark.
Unfortunately, this very short cycle has also made it absurdly easy for
unscrupulous eBay sellers to manipulate pricing. With very few people
(or at least very few eBay ID’s – it could be all done by one person),
it is a simple matter to create a false data pattern, a spurious sales
history showing sales at artificially high prices. Assume that your
edition-of-200 Basekupzik 2004 Fezzelwibit retailed at $20 and has a current
fair market price of $60 (in a hypothetical transaction between
disinterested parties aware of all relevant pricing data). Dishonest
sellers create a few spurious sales showing that it closed (all among what
appear to be unrelated sellers and buyers) at $180-$200 each time, and only
then do they list their item ‘for real.’ When the buyer pool
searches eBay‘s completed items and finds a few apparently legitimate
Fezzelwibit sales in that $180-$200 range, they understandably assume that is
where the free secondary market itself, Adam Smith’s Invisible
Hand, has set the price. When 90 days’ listings were searchable this
sort of scurrilous price manipulation was much tougher, as the likelihood that
other, true arm’s-length transactions will be found has now been reduced
to one-sixth of what it once was. Put another way, by
artificially restricting the searchability of closed sales eBay has made it
six times easier for scoundrels to artificially manipulate price
data. But, eBay makes its money from sellers, not buyers, they earn
more from higher closing prices, and they have no moral or legal duty to
provide any free, searchable data on past auctions. If you are a
steady buyer or seller, it may be worth your money to buy the past 90 days’
worth of data (plus some other statistical analysis) from eBay‘s
‘Marketplace Research’ service – this search data, once free to both buyers
and sellers, now costs $25 per month.
unscrupulous eBay sellers to manipulate pricing. With very few people
(or at least very few eBay ID’s – it could be all done by one person),
it is a simple matter to create a false data pattern, a spurious sales
history showing sales at artificially high prices. Assume that your
edition-of-200 Basekupzik 2004 Fezzelwibit retailed at $20 and has a current
fair market price of $60 (in a hypothetical transaction between
disinterested parties aware of all relevant pricing data). Dishonest
sellers create a few spurious sales showing that it closed (all among what
appear to be unrelated sellers and buyers) at $180-$200 each time, and only
then do they list their item ‘for real.’ When the buyer pool
searches eBay‘s completed items and finds a few apparently legitimate
Fezzelwibit sales in that $180-$200 range, they understandably assume that is
where the free secondary market itself, Adam Smith’s Invisible
Hand, has set the price. When 90 days’ listings were searchable this
sort of scurrilous price manipulation was much tougher, as the likelihood that
other, true arm’s-length transactions will be found has now been reduced
to one-sixth of what it once was. Put another way, by
artificially restricting the searchability of closed sales eBay has made it
six times easier for scoundrels to artificially manipulate price
data. But, eBay makes its money from sellers, not buyers, they earn
more from higher closing prices, and they have no moral or legal duty to
provide any free, searchable data on past auctions. If you are a
steady buyer or seller, it may be worth your money to buy the past 90 days’
worth of data (plus some other statistical analysis) from eBay‘s
‘Marketplace Research’ service – this search data, once free to both buyers
and sellers, now costs $25 per month.
So – caveat emptor is a concept even more ancient than the
Invisible Hand, but with eBay‘s changes it is even more critical in the
secondary toy market. If there is an item you want that is only available
in the secondary market, do your homework. If you don’t choose to buy
eBay‘s Marketplace Research, it is a good idea to ‘watch’ the items
for at least a few weeks, and retain the closed sales on your watch
list for reference when you decide to bid. Inquire on the various toy
fora. Don’t be pressured by any feeling that you will not get another
chance, there are very few items at which you won’t get a second
chance. As illustrated by the Stack Pack sales above, if an item is
suddenly selling for big dollars, it is likely that other potential sellers will
see those prices too, more of the item will be driven to the market, and
eventually the prices will decline. If you’re a seller, the best time to
sell any item is after a period of time when none have come onto the
market. This is especially true where an artist has recently released
another popular item, as that will generate new interest in the artist’s prior
work.
Invisible Hand, but with eBay‘s changes it is even more critical in the
secondary toy market. If there is an item you want that is only available
in the secondary market, do your homework. If you don’t choose to buy
eBay‘s Marketplace Research, it is a good idea to ‘watch’ the items
for at least a few weeks, and retain the closed sales on your watch
list for reference when you decide to bid. Inquire on the various toy
fora. Don’t be pressured by any feeling that you will not get another
chance, there are very few items at which you won’t get a second
chance. As illustrated by the Stack Pack sales above, if an item is
suddenly selling for big dollars, it is likely that other potential sellers will
see those prices too, more of the item will be driven to the market, and
eventually the prices will decline. If you’re a seller, the best time to
sell any item is after a period of time when none have come onto the
market. This is especially true where an artist has recently released
another popular item, as that will generate new interest in the artist’s prior
work.
I hope this is helpful, and VP is interested in pertinent comments or
stories from our readership – post your tales in the Comments to this article,
we’ll keep an eye on those and pipe in with anything more.
stories from our readership – post your tales in the Comments to this article,
we’ll keep an eye on those and pipe in with anything more.
–Clay C.
If this all holds true , how come Kaws figures have been consitent from the beginning ,and done nothing but raise in price on ebay, This does hold some truth like the Erick Scarecrow figure selling for an average of 150 on ebay right now , what people don’t know is the ones buying up all of these figures and reposting them for a higher price , just cost themselves alot of money!!! Since the figure will be re- released this month , those libertys you are selling for in excess of 150 will be worthless to buyers. Sellers do your homework , you are hurting yourselves! Buyers do your homework also ,be aware of new release dates and etc. A little peice of advice from the underground artist. Yuo all stay cool and check out the DJA customs for a real bang for your buck!!!!
LOL-Damn that’s the kid’s first vinyl and he got people upset already. Dude Erick Scarecrow’s stuff is fire. There’s only 300 green ones “which I copped 2 of” that’s produced. So you’re telling me if in 5 years my Libertys won’t increase in value? You’re choking. Then you’re going to plug your personal work. You sound broke.
Did you read the article numbskull look at ebay right now under liberty you will see everything selling for 150 , look at the end of the month and see how much people are getting for liberty , I will be surprised if they get what they paid!! % years is a different story, I can buy a walmart figure and it will be worth more in 5 years! Big deal you got 2 , I got 8 and sold 7 to numbskulls like you!!!Keep paying top dollar and I will keep selling to you!!!
By the way never said Liberty was not dope , this is the best figure put out this year! The pencils and spray can are the best idea to date. Props to you Erick ,Keep up the great work and yes your figure will be priceless in 5 years
Hate to break ya bubble homey, but the pencil and the spray can???? Does the artist even write graffiti? or is he a bandwagon hopper?
Gimme a break, the figure is nothing more then a statue of liberty with a spray can, real genius buddy.
ALSO, walmsrt toys wont be wrth shit until about 75 years from now, I got general release starwars figures mint in package only worth $10 get real bud.
Which is it Phokmi or Phoku? You still sound like a dumb Phok.
real talk.. Liberty’s shit.. not original.. looks like KR’s girlfriend
wow yet another hater. Scarecrow must be doing something right.
It’s a great scenario and does happen, that’s why http://www.expressobeans.com exists in part to track specifically concert posters over a long period of time. EB is also a free, no ads site. Check it out. We need more sites like it.
I’m backing up what bakedbeans is saying.
http://www.expressobeans.com is one way to know what is up in the secondary marketplace. But a databse is only as good as the information entered. So enter the auctions, we’ll track them, and the history will be around as long as the internets exsist.
Cheers.